Recent polling shows that the U.S. Senate is likely to flip from its current Democratic majority to a Republican one, while control of the House of Representatives remains too close to call. AHPA’s presence in 16 states and D.C. gives us a sizeable footprint of policymakers that are up for reelection or vacant seats to be filled. This November, eight Senate seats and over 65 House seats representing AHPA members’ facilities will be up for re-election.

The Senate

Senate Democrats are currently expected to lose their 51-49 majority. They are defending a total of 23 seats in the November election while Republicans are only defending 11 Republican-held seats, all in red states. If Republicans win those races as expected and flip just one state, the Senate will be tied 50-50 with deciding votes made by the new vice president. The retirement of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) means that Republicans will likely pick up that one seat. If Republicans flip two seats, they will win back Senate control no matter who is in the White House. Two AHPA states are currently in the spotlight this election with control of the Senate hanging in the balance:

Ohio: One of the nation’s closest Senate race is in Ohio, where incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) is in a race with candidate Bernie Moreno (R-OH). Brown, who sits on the Senate Finance Committee (controlling Medicare and Medicaid policy) is narrowly ahead in polling with a one-point advantage. In the 117th Congress, Senator Brown used his position on the Finance Committee to pass the TRAIN Act, which stopped millions of dollars from being clawed back from AHPA-members’ hospital affiliated universities, including AdventHealth’s and Kettering Health’s universities.

Wisconsin: Some polls show that incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin’s (D-WI) lead from the summer has been whittled down by challenger Eric Hovde (R-WI). While many pollsters are still showing Baldwin leading, the race has been showing up on more “toss-up” lists this October. Tammy Baldwin sits on the Senate Health, Labor, Education and Pensions Committee (HELP), which has jurisdiction over all public health programs and critical hospital policies like the 340B program.

For other AHPA states, the current polls show that most of the incumbent candidates are expected to win their respective races. Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) are both carrying thin margins but are expected to retain their seats. Zooming out past just AHPA states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada are also hosting competitive races, with a slight polling advantage for Democratic candidates. The most likely path Republicans have to an outright majority in the Senate goes through Montana, where Republican challenger Tim Sheehy (R-MT) is leading the incumbent Jon Tester (D-MT). Former President Trump is leading VP Harris by nearly 20 points in Montana, which means a record-percentage of voters would have to split their ticket for Tester to retain his seat.

The House

Control of the House of Representatives will come down to a small number of competitive seats. A party needs to control 218 of the 435 House seats to hold a majority. Currently, Republicans hold 220 seats (1 incumbent vacancy) in the House to the Democrats’ 212 (2 incumbent vacancies). Two seats are projected to flip to Democratic control, but there are another two dozen House seats that are competitive. Control of the House will likely come down to which Presidential candidate most effectively drives voters to the polls.

The main AHPA race to watch is Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), who is being challenged by Rudy Salas (D-CA) to represent California’s Central Valley. Valadao sits on the powerful Appropriations Committee, which funds most government programs.

Doctors in Congress

There are currently 19 physicians serving in the 118th Congress, and House Republican doctors pool their influence through the GOP Doctor Caucus, which shapes policy like physician payment reform. Representatives Larry Bucshon (R-IN) Brad Wenstrup (R-OH), Drew Ferguson (R-GA) and Michael Burgess (R-TX) are not seeking reelection this year. Burgess, who came to Congress in 2003, is a former chair of the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee, and Bucshon currently is the vice chair. Representatives Wenstrup and Ferguson both sit on the House Ways and Means Committee. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA), another Ways and Means member, also faces a tough re-election. The retirement of four physicians who sit on the two most powerful health policy committees could have implications on future discussions to reform physician payments. For a full break down on the physicians in Congress, click here. There are two new physicians running for office, to view their profiles, click here.

Go Out and Vote

The next AHPA Policy Brief will circulate on November 8th with highlights from the 2024 election. We encourage everyone to vote. To find your polling station, click here.

“We do not have government by the majority. We have government by the majority who participate.”

 – Thomas Jefferson