AHPA Brief
June 26, 2026
CMS Releases Healthcare Spending Projections
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary released its annual projections around national health spending, estimating that U.S. healthcare spending will reach $9 trillion by 2034. Below are some of the findings, which will likely boost current discussions in Congress on healthcare affordability:
- Health spending reached $5.7 billion in 2025, up 7.3% from 2024.
- Healthcare spending will continue to grow faster than the rest of the economy during the decade but the growth rate will slow down this year by 6.3% and by 4.9% during the 2027 and 2028 period as utilization stabilizes and Medicaid enrollment declines due to changes made by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
- Per-enrollee spending for private health insurance, Medicare and Medicaid are all anticipated to increase above 5.0% per year between 2025 and 2034.
- The insured share of the population is expected to be 90.5% in 2034, compared with 91.8% in 2024.